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ING sees upside risks to Hungary’s 2026 growth forecast
ING economists say consumption is expected to be the main driver and project retail sales growth of about 5% to 6% in 2026.
ING economists Peter Virovacz and Frantisek Taborsky have upgraded their tone on Hungary’s growth outlook, pointing to positive surprises in high-frequency economic data and stronger consumption. While they still forecast 1.5% GDP growth in 2026, they now see clear upside risks to that baseline.
Their view highlights a developing recovery in industry and retail, even as they caution that net exports and demographics could limit expansion. They also note Hungary’s industry could average around 4% growth in 2026 after three years of industrial recession, suggesting industrial contribution could turn positive again.
ING expects consumer spending to lead the economy in 2026, citing consumer confidence moving toward historical highs, low inflation, and strong wage growth. The economists project retail sales growth of roughly 5% to 6%, keeping household consumption as the central support for growth.
The update also flags ongoing labor market tightness, driven by companies hoarding labor, and says wage setting has become increasingly pressing as the three-year minimum wage agreement moves through its final year into 2027, with a revision likely. Separately, Hungary’s Finance Ministry is cited as expecting 1.6% to 2.0% GDP growth.