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Timberland stumpage prices lag inflation as supplies remain abundant

LandThink says US Forest Service data show Alabama annual timber growth has exceeded harvest removals for at least two decades, keeping standing inventories near record levels.

Reported · Written up by our desk · Industry

Timberland is often marketed as a long-term, patient asset, but stumpage prices for pine products have not kept up with inflation in recent decades, according to LandThink. The article traces the shift from the generally upward pricing environment seen through the 1990s and early 2000s to a stall after the 2008 recession, adding that many current pine stumpage prices are lower than they were about 20 years ago.

LandThink notes that several macro factors have appeared supportive on the surface, including a national housing shortage, record lumber prices, tariffs on Canadian imports, and inflation. Yet those developments have not translated into higher stumpage prices in practice, the outlet says.

A core explanation, LandThink writes, is that timber supply has outpaced market consumption for a sustained period. The article cites US Forest Service forest inventory data showing that even with added sawmill capacity in recent years, Alabama’s annual timber growth has exceeded harvest removals for at least the last two decades, contributing to record standing timber inventory levels and shifting market leverage toward buyers.

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