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Polymarket cuts odds for CLARITY Act passage to a record low

Polymarket now prices the CLARITY Act at a 32% chance of passing by Dec. 31, 2026, down from about 82% in mid-February, as Senate ethics negotiations remain unresolved.

Reported · Written up by our desk · Regulation

CoinDesk reports that Polymarket traders have driven down their odds for the CLARITY Act, citing stalled Senate negotiations over ethics provisions.

According to Polymarket, the bill has a 32% chance of passing by year-end, its lowest level since the market launched in January, after earlier odds peaked at as high as 82% on Feb. 19 and then declined since early May.

The outlet says Senate negotiations have centered on winning Democratic support, with a bipartisan ethics provision described as the biggest obstacle, and Democratic lawmakers including Sen. Ruben Gallego indicating they would not back the bill on the Senate floor without such language.

CoinDesk adds that if enacted, the CLARITY Act would set a clearer federal framework for digital asset markets by drawing a line between assets overseen by the SEC and those regulated by the CFTC.

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