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Hyperliquid will open prediction markets to anyone after HIP-4 upgrade

New market creators must stake 500,000 HYPE, roughly $30M, and can earn up to 50% of trading fees.

Reported · Written up by our desk · Market Structure

Hyperliquid is planning an enhancement to its HIP-4 upgrade, which added “outcome trading” in May, to allow prediction markets on the platform to be deployed by anyone rather than only validators, according to Decrypt.

The exchange said the rollout will start on testnet before moving to mainnet, with a goal of keeping fewer than 10 validator-run markets per year while the rest are opened to the crowd.

Anyone who wants to launch a prediction market will need to stake 500,000 HYPE, about $30M, which can be slashed if the platform determines the market was poorly defined or settled incorrectly.

In return, Decrypt reports that the deployer can earn up to 50% of that market’s trading fees, contrasting Hyperliquid’s permissionless approach with curated market models associated with Polymarket and Kalshi.

The change arrives as prediction markets hit a summer peak, with Decrypt citing wagers of $50B in June and $37B so far in July, including Kalshi’s $33B total for June, or 66% market share.

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