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World Cup prediction market volume tops $5.5B on Polymarket and Kalshi
Polymarket generated about $4.28B of World Cup contract volume, while Kalshi recorded about $1.29B, and Dune Analytics found 66.7% of Polymarket addresses finished the winner market in the red.
Spain’s second World Cup title helped power a record run for crypto prediction markets tied to sports outcomes, with Polymarket and Kalshi settling the tournament’s top winner contracts and reporting about $5.57 billion in cumulative volume across the champion market. Polymarket’s market generated roughly $4.28 billion, while Kalshi’s reached about $1.29 billion, according to CryptoSlate.
The World Cup’s structure drove repeat trading opportunities, with 48 teams and 104 matches across the United States, Canada and Mexico. Operators listed contracts on match results, team advancement, total goals, individual scorers and tournament awards, creating a steady stream of events that CryptoSlate said differs from the more sporadic timing of elections and major policy decisions.
H2 Gambling Capital estimated that prediction markets accounted for about 27% of legal US sports-betting volume during the tournament, up from roughly 9% at the beginning of the year. The surge also reflected a liquidity build-up as users could enter, exit or shift positions through each round, CryptoSlate reported.
Still, participation translated into uneven results. A Dune Analytics review of 194,422 addresses that traded Polymarket’s World Cup winner contract found 129,649 addresses, or 66.7%, ended in the red, while 64,773 finished profitable, and CryptoSlate reported that large losses were concentrated among a tiny share of traders.