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ECB expected to stay hawkish as inflation nears 3%

Commerzbank expects the next ECB rate move in September, targeting 2.50% while today’s communication is likely to align with current market pricing.

Reported · Written up by our desk · Central Banks

Commerzbank analysts told FXStreet that the European Central Bank could delay action at its upcoming meeting while still maintaining a hawkish tone, citing inflation that remains close to 3% and core pressures they expect may stay elevated.

The note said the ECB’s next rate move is expected in September, with a target next step to 2.50%, and that policymakers’ messaging today is likely to confirm what markets are already pricing.

FXStreet also reported that EUR/USD held above 1.1400 for a second straight day, supported ahead of the ECB decision, with investors watching closely for any hints of further rate hikes from the central bank.

In the same market rundown, FXStreet linked broader conditions to the ECB outlook, including an unchanged watch on the euro’s reaction and the wider impact of currency moves as the US dollar firms.

Latest closeEUR/USD 1.141 ▼0.0%

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