Bonds & Rates
Home›Bonds & Rates›Economy›Mortgage rates may ease gradually as 10-year yields so…
Mortgage rates may ease gradually as 10-year yields soften
A forecast cited by Yahoo Finance links the direction of mortgage pricing to where the 10-year Treasury note is expected to settle, with the spread between them doing much of the work.
Mortgage rates have been higher in recent years, and Yahoo Finance is pointing to future trends through a forecast that uses the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield as a key indicator. The outlet notes that mortgage rates tend to move with Treasury yields, but typically run higher because lenders add extra risk, creating a “spread” that must be accounted for when estimating where mortgage rates could land.
Yahoo Finance cites Deloitte economist Michael Wolf’s assumption that the Fed leaves rates unchanged until December 2026, with the average federal funds rate reaching its neutral 3.125% in mid-2027. Under that view, the 10-year Treasury yield would ease gradually to settle at 3.9% from the third quarter of 2027 through the end of 2030.
The outlet also highlights other yield projections that imply a higher path for long-term rates, including Goldman Sachs expecting the 10-year Treasury to rise to 4.5% by 2035 and the Congressional Budget Office projecting 4.1% by the end of 2026, rising gradually to about 4.3% by 2030.
To combine these views, Yahoo Finance says the predictions were compiled into a consensus using artificial intelligence, specifically Anthropic’s Claude, and that consensus is used to map expectations for mortgage rates over the next five years. The material provided ends after introducing how the gap between the 10-year Treasury and 30-year fixed mortgage rates factors into the estimate.