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U.S. severe convective storm losses expected below average in 2026

Karen Clark & Company projects below-average 2026 losses, citing a persistent high-pressure system that kept May storm formation largely out of the Southeast.

Reported · Written up by our desk · Reinsurance

U.S. severe convective storm, or SCS, insured losses are projected to come in below average in 2026, according to catastrophe risk modeler Karen Clark & Company, based on recorded losses seen in the first half of the year.

KCC said SCS has generally grown in intensity and expanded geographically in recent years, but this year’s spring losses were comparatively low. The firm pointed to a sustained high-pressure system over the Southeast that contributed to warm, dry conditions and helped suppress convective storm development, particularly in May.

In May 2026, KCC noted that the southerly storm tracks were blocked for much of the month, with the resulting pattern linked to above-average wildfire activity and almost no severe storms across the entire month. KCC added that the main SCS impacts were largely limited to the Central Plains.

KCC also highlighted that accumulated losses by the end of June typically account for more than 75% of total annual SCS losses. Even in a quieter period for the peril, broker estimates still underscore SCS as a major driver for the wider insurance and reinsurance market, with Gallagher Re estimating about $26 billion of its $46 billion global insured catastrophe total came from SCS, and Aon estimating roughly $27 billion in U.S. insured losses for H1 2026, including a single April 23 to 29 outbreak that generated more than $5 billion in insured losses.

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