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ECB forecasters see euro zone inflation near 2% through 2028

The ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters pegs 2026 headline inflation at 2.7% and expects unemployment to average 6.3% in 2026 and 2027.

Reported · Written up by our desk · Economy

The ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters for the third quarter of 2026 shows expectations for euro zone headline inflation, measured by HICP, at 2.7% for 2026, 2.2% for 2027 and 2.0% for 2028, with longer term (to 2031) remaining at 2.0%. Expectations for HICP excluding food and energy, or HICPX, are set at 2.4% for 2026, 2.2% for 2027 and 2.1% for 2028, with longer term also at 2.0%.

Compared with the prior survey round, respondents left 2026 and 2028 headline inflation unchanged, while raising 2027 expectations by 0.1 percentage point. For HICPX, expectations for 2026 were revised up by 0.2 percentage points, while 2027 and 2028 were unchanged.

On growth, respondents expect real GDP to expand by 0.6% in 2026, 1.2% in 2027 and 1.3% in 2028. The survey outlook was revised down for 2026 by 0.4 percentage points and for 2027 by 0.1 percentage point, while 2028 stayed the same, and longer term growth expectations were lowered to 1.2% for 2031.

Labor market expectations were slightly higher, with unemployment forecast at 6.3% in both 2026 and 2027, easing to 6.2% in 2028 and 6.1% in the longer term. The ECB survey also said a special question on the war in the Middle East pointed to limited expected indirect and second round effects, concentrated in 2026, and that the balance of risks to inflation was tilted somewhat to the upside in 2026 and more balanced afterward.

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