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KCC expects below-average US severe storm insured losses in 2026
KCC attributes the softer outlook to a persistent high-pressure system that muted US storm tracks in spring, with drought and above-average wildfire activity in the Southeast likely worsening risk in other ways.
Catastrophe risk modeler Karen Clark & Company, or KCC, is projecting insured losses from US severe convective storms will be below the annual average in 2026, based on loss activity data through the first half of the year, the outlet Insurance Business reported.
KCC said early-year loss totals are especially informative because accumulated losses through the end of June typically account for more than 75% of total annual severe convective storm losses. The firm pointed to a relatively muted first half despite multiple multi-billion-dollar events, noting that May losses were well below normal due to a persistent high-pressure pattern over the Southeast that blocked the southerly storm tracks normally driven by the spring jet stream.
KCC added that the high-pressure air suppressed convective storm development, leaving almost no severe storm activity across the Southeast and contributing to prolonged drought and above-average wildfire activity. It expects a geographic shift for 2026, with the Upper Midwest seeing above-average severe storm losses while Texas and the Southeast run below normal.
Industry figures cited by Insurance Business also showed a softer first-half loss picture, with Gallagher Re estimating insured severe convective storm losses at more than $22 billion as of June 18, and Aon putting the figure at about $27 billion. Both were below the five-year first-half average of $38 billion and the 10-year average of $30 billion, even as 2026 marks the 11th straight year annual US severe convective storm losses have exceeded $20 billion, the outlet said.