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CLARITY Act passage odds cut to 30%, with Senate deal deadline
Galaxy Digital says lawmakers need an agreement by July 30 to fit floor proceedings before the August recess.
Galaxy Digital says the US Senate has just four working days to salvage the CLARITY Act, cutting its estimate for passage this year to 30% from 50%. In a July 24 note, the crypto investment firm warned that lawmakers need a deal by July 30 to leave enough time for Senate floor proceedings before the August recess.
The update comes after Senate Republicans released an updated 616-page combined version of the crypto market-structure bill following months of negotiations. The new text merges measures approved by the Senate Banking and Agriculture committees and adds government ethics restrictions, law-enforcement provisions, and changes to the GENIUS Act.
The combined bill includes an ethics package that would bar senior federal officials, including the president, vice president, members of Congress, and federal judges, from issuing or sponsoring cryptocurrencies while in office. It also expands fraud and illicit finance provisions, strengthens CFTC registration and custody requirements, and revises stablecoin oversight under the GENIUS Act.
Galaxy Digital said Democratic votes remain the key hurdle, noting that seven Democrats involved in the negotiations, including Sens. Mark Warner, Angela Alsobrooks, Cory Booker, Catherine Cortez Masto, Ruben Gallego, John Hickenlooper, and Raphael Warnock, said the latest proposal still falls short. With Republicans holding 53 Senate seats, the bill would need 60 votes to overcome a filibuster, and Galaxy expects opposition from Sens. Josh Hawley and Rand Paul, while noting Sen. Mitch McConnell has not voted since his June hospitalization.