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Central Asian states likely to keep pragmatic transit ties with Iran
The piece says cooperation could persist over connectivity routes even as IRGC-dominated control in Tehran raises short-term disruption risk amid a 2026 conflict.
OilPrice examines how relationships between Iran and Central Asian republics are likely to evolve, with Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan expected to prioritize practical economic and transit cooperation while staying cautious.
The outlet links the direction of Iran’s policy to the post-assassination leadership shift after Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and his family were killed on 28 February 2026, with Mojtaba Khamenei taking on leadership backing from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
OilPrice says the IRGC, including senior figures such as commander Brigadier General Ahmad Vahidi, is positioned to influence negotiations and potentially sideline civilian leaders, and that it operates with hardline priorities including asymmetric approaches and sanctions evasion.
The article also argues that while a 2026 conflict could cause near-term disruptions, longer-term continuity could be sustained by shared interests in connectivity and multipolarity, and it notes the IRGC may control about 50% of Iran’s economy.