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Heathrow third runway could divert jobs and passengers from UK regions
A Department for Transport economic paper projects Birmingham could lose 7.5 million passengers per year by 2050, linked to about 9,500 jobs lost at the airport and in its supply chain.
Airports in England and Wales could lose millions of passengers if Heathrow moves forward with a third runway, according to a Department for Transport economic paper analyzed through the government’s own forecasts. The analysis suggests the jobs created at Heathrow would largely represent displaced employment from other parts of the UK.
The impact would not be uniform across regions. Birmingham airport alone is set to lose out on 7.5 million passengers a year by 2050, a decline economists say would equate to about 9,500 jobs foregone at the airport and its supply chain.
The report also highlighted broader employment diversion. New Economics Foundation analysis of the DfT modelling suggests that by 2050, 15,200 aviation jobs that would otherwise go to the regions and 6,400 jobs at other London and south-east airports would instead accrue to Heathrow.
The findings could intensify political scrutiny around the expansion. The DfT paper followed the launch of a consultation on Heathrow’s national policy statement, which MPs must approve to build the runway, and it indicated the overall GDP boost could be only up to 0.05%.