Real Estate
Home›Real Estate›Residential›Northern California fire-risk counties see population…
Northern California fire-risk counties see population outflows in 2025
Tuolumne County, CA had a net outflow of 775 residents in 2025, the largest among fire-prone counties in the analysis.
Fire-prone areas of rural Northern California are losing residents, according to Redfin, bucking the broader national pattern where more fire-prone counties are adding people than losing them.
The data shows Tuolumne County, CA, about 170 miles east of San Francisco, recorded a net domestic outflow of 775 residents in 2025, which marks the first net outflow in a decade, aside from 2022. Sutter County, CA, about 40 miles north of Sacramento, had the second-largest outflow at 754 residents, with Lassen County, CA next at a net outflow of 502 residents in 2024.
Redfin’s analysis defines “high-risk” counties as those in the top 10% for the share of homes facing high fire risk, based on climate-risk scores from First Street. In 2025, the migration window covered July 1, 2024 through July 1, 2025, and Redfin says it is based on domestic migration data from the U.S. Census Bureau, excluding immigration.
Across the 10 fire-prone counties with the largest net outflows, median home-sale prices ranged from $123,153 in Starr County, TX to $1,738,096 in Summit County, UT (June 2026). The analysis also notes that the data is subject to revision and highlights that rising insurance costs and other climate-risk pressures are weighing on these areas, unlike some fire-prone regions that still attract new residents.