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Treasuries rise as oil falls and buyers chase high yields ahead of Fed
The 10-year yield fell to 4.64% as demand strengthened at a $69 billion auction of two-year notes, with markets still pricing a roughly 40% chance of a July rate hike.
US Treasuries advanced as the US paused strikes on Iran and oil prices declined, improving sentiment for government debt ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting. Yields on the 10-year note dropped to 4.64%, after the year to date peak hit last week, as the market began to price in less immediate stress.
On the auction front, demand was strongest for the shortest and near-term part of the curve. Trading appetite supported a $69 billion sale of two-year Treasuries, while a separate five-year note sale drew less demand, according to market coverage cited by LiveMint Markets.
Traders also weighed the likelihood of a Fed move in coming weeks, keeping uncertainty elevated. Overnight-indexed swaps implied an almost 40% chance of a quarter percentage point rate increase this week, while economists surveyed by Bloomberg largely expected rates to remain unchanged.
The backdrop for rate expectations included both easing signs in June inflation data and renewed concerns linked to energy prices. Brent crude fell below $90 a barrel, and market strategists cited by LiveMint Markets said Fed officials under Kevin Warsh were expected to prepare markets for a possible September hike.
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