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Commerzbank cuts its year-end gold forecast on hawkish Fed outlook

The bank says gold has fallen nearly 30% from its January record and now expects a path toward USD 5,000 by end-2027 if Fed rates stay unchanged and later fall.

Reported · Written up by our desk · Precious Metals

Commerzbank analysts Carsten Fritsch and Thu Lan Nguyen said gold is likely to face further pressure as higher real yields and a more hawkish Federal Reserve outlook weigh on demand for the metal.

They noted that gold has already dropped nearly 30% from its January record, prompting a reduction to their year-end gold forecast to USD 4,500 per troy ounce from USD 4,800.

Commerzbank still expects gold to move higher over time, projecting a rise to USD 5,000 by the end of 2027 if Fed rates remain unchanged initially and later decline.

The analysts link the revised outlook to their view that the Fed would refrain from raising interest rates and could start cutting its key rate from mid-2027, which they say would give gold room for further gains next year and beyond, according to FXStreet.

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