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Polymarket bets swing as Apple regains lead over Nvidia for month-end
The prediction market showed Apple’s odds above 79%, with Apple’s market value about $227 billion higher than Nvidia ahead of Apple’s July 30 earnings catalyst.
Decrypt reported that on Polymarket, a prediction market where contract prices track crowd generated probabilities, Apple’s chance of finishing July as the world’s largest company jumped to about 79% in roughly a day, while Nvidia’s chance fell to around 22%. The contract has attracted about $4.7 million in trading volume, according to the outlet.
At Tuesday’s close, Apple was valued at approximately $4.995 trillion versus Nvidia’s $4.768 trillion, giving Apple a lead of roughly $227 billion. With three trading sessions left before July settlement, the story noted the lead could still shift quickly based on a single volatile session.
Decrypt said Apple will report fiscal third quarter results on July 30 at 5 p.m. Eastern time, which it described as the last major catalyst before the Polymarket contract resolves on Friday. The piece framed the move as a shift in sentiment about AI spending, including investor concerns around AI capital expenditures and the scale of long lived infrastructure investment.
The outlet added that while Nvidia remains central to AI infrastructure spending, its shares have faced questions tied to reports that the company could provide a roughly $250 billion backstop for an OpenAI data center project. Decrypt also pointed to Apple’s AI approach, including its rebuilt Siri unveiled in early June that uses a mix of outside models and smaller on device systems.