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Polymarket bets Apple will finish July above Nvidia
Apple was valued at about $4.995 trillion at Tuesday’s close versus Nvidia’s $4.768 trillion, a gap of roughly $227 billion, with Apple’s July-first-place probability jumping to around 79%.
A prediction market tracked by Polymarket is signaling a potential change at the top of global company valuations, with traders pushing up the odds that Apple will finish July as the world’s largest company while Nvidia slips.
According to Decrypt, Apple’s chance of finishing July in first place surged by more than 50% in about a day, reaching roughly 79%, while Nvidia fell to around 22%. Apple ended Tuesday worth about $5.0 trillion, or approximately $227 billion more than Nvidia, and Polymarket showed about $4.7 million in total trading volume tied to the contract.
The move comes as Apple’s next quarterly earnings are set for Thursday evening, giving traders a near-term catalyst before the contract resolves Friday. Decrypt also notes investors are weighing AI spending risk, including concerns about capital expenditures on long-lived infrastructure like chips, servers, and data centers.
On the fundamental side, Decrypt highlights that Nvidia’s latest reported quarter showed data-center revenue rising 75% to $62.3 billion, underscoring continued demand for AI infrastructure. It also cites Reuters estimates that five major cloud companies could spend more on capex than they generate in free cash flow by 2027.