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Prediction markets cut odds that US Iran ceasefire lasts 14 days
On Polymarket, the share for a 14-day no US strike window fell from over 60% to around 53%, reflecting doubts about whether diplomacy can hold.
Decrypt reports that a US announced ceasefire with Iran has not convinced crypto-linked prediction traders, as odds that the truce can run for a continuous 14 days dropped by 10% on Polymarket.
The specific Polymarket contract tied to a continuous 14-day period without a US airstrike or a surface-to-surface missile strike directly hitting Iranian territory fell from above 60% to about 53% on the day, with traders pricing roughly 50-50 odds that the US will not stick to the restraint for two full weeks.
The article notes that the US and Iran had held fire for a third day by Monday, after 13 consecutive nights of US strikes, and that President Trump warned military action could resume if diplomacy fails.
Decrypt also cites Myriad, a separate prediction market that tracks whether the next formal senior-level round of US-Iran peace talks begins by July 31, and says its July 31 Polymarket contract can stay open into mid-August because the required no-strike period only needs to begin by July 31.