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Fitch flags AI boom risks as major global credit vulnerability
Fitch said exposure of the economy and capital markets to an AI-linked correction is significant, with world growth forecast to slow to 2.4% in 2026.
Fitch warned that the AI boom, alongside the risk of a correction, is emerging as a major global credit risk, highlighting how AI spending and tech valuations have become tightly linked with economic growth and capital markets, particularly in the United States.
In its third-quarter Global Risk Outlook, Fitch identified two short-term risks driving the credit backdrop, mounting vulnerability to an AI-related market correction and ongoing uncertainty tied to the U.S.-Iran conflict, including renewed fighting and a closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
The agency pointed to valuation and funding indicators in the United States, noting the S&P 500 cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio has climbed to levels near the late 1990s dotcom era, while U.S. corporate bond issuance rose 26% in the first half of 2026, driven largely by AI-related fundraising.
Fitch also estimated that booming IT investment directly added 1.4 percentage points to first-quarter U.S. GDP growth and said capital expenditure by major AI-linked firms is projected to rise more than 75% this year to $700 billion, while warning that uncertainty over future AI revenues, regulation, competition, and labor-market disruption could trigger a significant and prolonged market correction.
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