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Wall Street cuts Coinbase estimates as spot trading volumes slump
Analysts cite weaker April and May spot volumes, with bitcoin down about 14% and ether down about 25% in the second quarter.
CoinDesk reports that Wall Street analysts have trimmed Coinbase’s second-quarter expectations after a slump in spot trading volumes during April and May. Multiple firms said softer transaction activity is expected to weigh on the quarter, with steady subscription and services revenue, including stablecoin interest and staking rewards, seen as partial support.
CoinDesk also notes that investors stayed cautious and retail participation remained muted across the industry, with bitcoin and ether trading lower on average versus the prior quarter. Through most of the second quarter, bitcoin fell about 14% and ether dropped about 25%, and while June improved, analysts said it did not fully offset earlier weakness.
According to CoinDesk, Barclays, Benchmark, Clear Street, and Compass Point all reduced their estimates ahead of Coinbase’s earnings, which are due after the close. Barclays’ Benjamin Budish estimated Coinbase processed roughly $152 billion of trading volume in the quarter, below the Street’s expectation of about $178 billion, and projected adjusted EBITDA about 3% under consensus.
CoinDesk says Clear Street’s Owen Lau projected about $160 billion in trading volume and $301 million in adjusted EBITDA, citing weaker retail activity. Benchmark’s Mark Palmer lowered the EBITDA forecast to $377 million, while Compass Point expects revenue to slightly miss consensus but believes EBITDA will be roughly in line, with regulatory progress on Capitol Hill described as a major wildcard for investors.
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