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Bitcoin slips after Fed holds rates, trading near key cost basis zone
The Fed decision followed a 9-3 vote with three officials favoring a quarter-point hike, while Glassnode flags the $62,000 to $68,000 Bitcoin cost-basis cluster as a key cycle range.
The Federal Reserve kept its benchmark rate at 3.50% to 3.75% on July 29 in a 9-3 vote that highlighted division within the committee. Beth Hammack, Neel Kashkari, and Lorie Logan preferred a quarter-point increase, the first time since September 2016 that three policymakers dissented in the same direction, according to CryptoSlate.
Bitcoin initially traded above $64,000 after the decision, then eased back toward about $63,600 before reclaiming $64,000 overnight, leaving it near the lower end of a range tracked by on-chain analytics firm Glassnode. Glassnode points to $62,000 to $68,000 as the heaviest cost-basis cluster in Bitcoin's supply profile, where long-term holders tend to provide support while short-term holders are more prone to selling into rebounds.
Glassnode also linked the setup to a backdrop for market depth, noting that the three-month Bitcoin futures basis has produced less than the two-year Treasury since February. The outlet said spot volume has fallen to its lowest level since 2019, and exchange activity is near a three-year low, while Farside Investors data showed about $999 million inflowing from July 14 to 22, then roughly $526 million leaving across four straight outflow days through July 28.
In the view of Stephen Coltman, head of macro at 21Shares, the hold was a “sigh of relief” but also a gamble that could become harder if inflation remains hot into September, during the US midterm campaign. CryptoSlate further reported that Can-Luca Köymen at Sygnum Bank expects the macro backdrop to stay restrictive, while Iggy Ioppe at Theo said there is “no clean catalyst” near term, leaving market participants focused on yield and keeping directional exposure to Bitcoin on the sidelines.
Latest closeBitcoin $64,787.72 ▲1.4%