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China GDP growth misses target, seen as supporting measured fiscal policy

Commerzbank said China’s Q2 2026 GDP grew 4.3% year on year, below the 4.5% to 5% goal, with real estate weakness and cautious fiscal support weighing on demand.

Reported · Written up by our desk · Major Pairs

Commerzbank strategist Volkmar Baur, as summarized by FXStreet, said China’s Q2 2026 GDP growth of 4.3% year on year came in below the government’s 4.5% to 5% target.

The note pointed to real estate weakness and a cautious fiscal stance as key factors weighing on demand, while saying net exports contributed significantly to growth.

FXStreet also highlighted that the firm expects modest fiscal expansion to help return official growth to within the target range.

The commentary cited official statistics for the 4.3% growth reading and added that the economy was undermined by the US-Iran conflict, particularly in April and May.

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