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JPMorgan warns fading Clarity Act odds could hurt crypto catalysts

The bank said prediction markets now imply only a 37% chance the bill clears the Senate before year-end after lawmakers prioritized other measures, leaving tokenization risks shifting toward incumbent infrastructure.

Reported · Written up by our desk · Regulation

CoinDesk reports that JPMorgan says the odds of the U.S. Clarity Act passing this year are fading, and that this could weigh on crypto markets by delaying a major source of regulatory certainty for digital assets.

JPMorgan argues that the legislation would provide clearer oversight by dividing jurisdiction between the SEC and the CFTC, and by setting a more predictable framework for crypto intermediaries, tokenization, and decentralized projects.

In the bank’s view, further delays could also change where tokenization and blockchain-based applications end up, potentially pushing more activity into traditional financial infrastructure rather than benefiting public crypto networks.

JPMorgan cited a prediction market implying a 37% chance the law passes before year-end, noting that Senate leaders prioritized other bills before summer recess, while negotiations remain deadlocked on issues including ethics provisions, enforcement, DeFi, stablecoin yield, and anti-money laundering rules.

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