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Rabobank flags LNG chokepoint risk for TTF natural gas into 2026
Rabobank expects winter gas prices to stay elevated until global LNG reaches oversupply next year, with upside scenarios around €60/MWh for TTF and $21/MMBtu for JKM.
Rabobank’s Florence Schmit said TTF natural gas remains exposed to Strait of Hormuz disruption risk and QatarEnergy’s extended force majeure, even as there has been some recovery in Qatari LNG flows, according to FXStreet’s insights.
In its base case, Rabobank forecasts TTF to trade around €51-52/MWh for Q3 to Q4 2026, with winter scenarios spanning from gradual normalization to potential escalation, depending on when global LNG supply could swing into oversupply.
Rabobank’s outlook hinges on timing, saying it sees Qatari LNG supply starting to return more meaningfully toward September or October, but not early enough to comfortably rebalance the global LNG market by winter.
FXStreet also noted Rabobank views price risks as skewed to the upside even if a U.S.-Iran deal is reached soon, and it outlined a higher-risk winter range if geopolitical tensions rise or shipping confidence weakens, including TTF around €60/MWh and JKM around $21/MMBtu.
Latest closeNat gas $2.723 ▲2.3%