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US second-quarter GDP and PCE data eyed for FX impact
Analysts expect a 2.1% annualized Q2 GDP expansion, with the GDP deflator and PCE also watched for shifts in Fed-rate expectations.
The US Bureau of Economic Analysis is set to release its preliminary estimate of second-quarter GDP on Thursday, with analysts expecting annualized growth of 2.1%, slightly down from the 2.1% expansion in the prior quarter, according to FXStreet.
FXStreet notes the GDP release, due at 12:30 GMT, is widely seen as the most market-moving of the quarterly GDP estimates, and investors will also look at the GDP Price Index, or GDP deflator, which measures inflation across domestically produced goods and services while excluding imports.
Beyond the headline growth number, the economic calendar also includes the Personal Consumption Expenditures inflation measure, the Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge, both of which could influence expectations for the Fed’s rate path and the direction of the US dollar.
FXStreet also points to the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model, which forecast a 1.6% expansion in Q2 as of July 27, down from 1.7% set on July 17, with market attention increasingly shaped by Middle East-related risks that can affect crude oil prices.
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