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At close · Fri, Jul 31, 2026
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Home›Forex›Major Pairs›USD/JPY seen trading in 158 to 163 range despite muted…

USD/JPY seen trading in 158 to 163 range despite muted yen move

TD Securities expects the next 25 bps BoJ hike to come only in December 2026, and flags intervention risk if USD/JPY pushes above 162.

Reported · Written up by our desk · Major Pairs

TD Securities analysts said the Japanese yen reaction to Governor Ueda’s hawkish tone has been muted, even though the Bank of Japan kept its policy rate at 1%.

The firm expects only the next 25 bps hike from the BoJ in December 2026, and projects USD/JPY could trade broadly between 158 and 163 in the coming weeks.

TD Securities noted traders may be cautious about follow up intervention efforts, pointing to how the yen has erased more than half of earlier intervention gains.

It added that the yen previously bounced off the 200-day moving average near 158, and suggested the yen outlook hinges on whether USD/JPY reverts above 162, which could increase the likelihood of renewed intervention.

Latest closeUSD/JPY 157.40 ▼1.7%

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Sources

FXStreetJapanese Yen: Wide range trading outlook – TD Securities

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