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Japan’s Ministry of Finance intervention helped lift JPY after Fed

Rabobank said speculative long USD positions were unwound after the July 29 Fed meeting, and Japan’s USD/JPY intervention amplified the move.

Reported · Written up by our desk · Major Pairs

Rabobank’s FX team said Japanese authorities benefited from a post-FOMC pullback in the US dollar, which eased pressure on the yen. The note attributes the USD decline to positioning changes after the July 29 Fed meeting, when market expectations for tightening did not materialize.

The analysis said speculative long USD positions were unwound following the July 29 Fed decision. Rabobank cited CFTC speculators’ data showing long USD holdings were built to their highest levels since September 2024 as the meeting approached, making profit-taking in the dollar likely.

Rabobank also pointed to Japan’s Ministry of Finance intervention in USD/JPY as an amplifier of the yen move. It noted that Japan had not intervened in support of the yen since late May before the late-July activity.

Finally, Rabobank referenced US Treasury cooperation via the FIMA Repo Facility, saying it helped avoid forced Treasury sales. The firm framed the dollar’s decline around the Fed meeting as fortuitous, if not overdue, from the perspective of Japanese authorities.

Latest closeUSD/JPY 157.38 ▼1.8%

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