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Bitcoin cycle heatmap shows longest capitulation stretch since FTX
Glassnode says its composite BTC price cycle tool has been signaling capitulation throughout 2026, using 45 indicators that include profitability metrics for short term and long term holders.
Glassnode said Bitcoin is experiencing its longest capitulation stretch since the end of the 2022 bear market, based on its aggregate Bitcoin Cycle Position Heatmap. The platform said the heatmap tool is in its coldest phase since the late 2022 period around the collapse of FTX.
According to Glassnode, the heatmap combines data from 45 indicators to summarize market health across repeating Bitcoin cycles. It describes blue areas as a capitulation phase within the cycle and red as the euphoria that typically appears as markets move toward cycle peaks, noting the heatmap flipped to blue for most of 2022 after a euphoric run in November 2021.
Glassnode also said the heatmap tracks investor profitability by splitting holders into short term (STH) and long term (LTH) cohorts. It highlighted dormancy as an example of a metric whose behavior changes over time, noting that dormancy can increase as the investor base ages and differs between cycles.
In a Market Pulse report released Monday, Glassnode said on chain activity strengthened, with daily active addresses and entity adjusted transfer volumes moving above their upper statistical bands. The company described this as a sign of resilience among market participants.
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