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CSU keeps 2026 Atlantic hurricane forecast well below normal
The Colorado State University team lowered its landfall probability metrics as the season progressed, citing strengthening El Niño and higher vertical wind shear for the basin.
Colorado State Universitys tropical meteorology team has maintained a forecast for a well below-normal 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, even as it updated landfall probability metrics downward as the season moved forward, according to the latest season-end update described by Artemis.
In the teams July 8 update, CSU projected 9 named storms, 4 hurricanes and 1 major hurricane, with a seasonal Accumulated Cyclone Energy, ACE, Index value of 50, and the final update leaves those hurricane counts unchanged.
The forecast retains a total of 9 named storms for the season, but it notes that two named storms already observed this year, Arthur and Bertha, are included, implying 7 additional named storms are forecast for the rest of the season.
CSU attributed the outlook primarily to expected El Niño conditions and a likely rise in vertical wind shear, with the team anticipating a well below-average probability of major hurricane landfalls along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean.