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Dollar seen with limited downside if July jobs data disappoint
TD Securities expects the US Dollar Index to stay above its 200-day SMA near 99 even with a payrolls miss or unemployment rate uptick.
TD Securities strategists expect only modest weakness in the US dollar if July nonfarm payrolls or the unemployment rate disappoint, arguing that downside for USD may be limited.
They project the US Dollar Index, or DXY, to remain above its 200-day simple moving average near the 99 level, citing reluctance from US-based investors to build short USD positions until US inflation data softens more clearly.
In a case of a payrolls miss or a rise in the unemployment rate, TD Securities says its base case still has DXY holding above the 99-handle, while upside payroll surprises would instead support further dollar gains.
The team also frames its outlook around a scenario where July NFP rose modestly to 70k after June’s 57k, and where the unemployment rate was likely steady near 4.2% before any participation and population-survey dynamics feed into the forecast.
TD Securities notes that US data have generally tracked at or above the global average during 2026, and says another upside payroll surprise could strengthen market views that US monetary policy is no longer restrictive.
Latest closeDollar index 99.88 ▼0.1%