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Dollar slips after weak ADP hiring data supports softer Fed hike bets
ADP showed private job growth of 44k, reinforcing the view that falling oil related inflation risk gives the Fed more time to stay on hold.
A weaker-than-expected ADP private employment print, showing 44k jobs, helped push the US dollar lower as traders leaned further into the idea that Federal Reserve rate hike odds for September can continue to fade, Action Forex reported.
The article said the ADP data did not start the shift, it added to a narrative already building over the prior two days, with oil prices easing and expectations for lower energy costs reducing concerns about inflation reaccelerating.
Markets had also been scaling back September hike expectations alongside growing optimism that the Strait of Hormuz could reopen soon, which was cited as a factor that could ease energy-driven inflation risk.
Action Forex added that Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari urged policymakers to move slowly and argued current policy lacked enough restrictive force, but the market showed little appetite for that message, while Treasury yields stayed soft and risk assets supported the broader tone.