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UK drought threatens worst harvest on record, raising food prices risk
The Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit estimates the UK cereals and oilseed harvest could fall 2.5 million tonnes below earlier forecasts, with barley, oats and rapeseed dropping to 19.5 million tonnes.
UK farmers are warning that exceptionally dry spring and summer weather could drive the worst harvest on record in England and Wales, threatening higher prices or smaller produce on supermarket shelves, according to BBC Business.
The Met Office reported England and Wales had their driest July since records began 190 years ago, and a drought has been declared across large parts of the country. The Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU) said UK cereals and oilseed output could be 2.5 million tonnes less than earlier forecasts.
ECIU estimates the harvest of barley, oats and rapeseed, used in beer, breakfast cereals and vegetable oil, could fall to 19.5 million tonnes, the lowest since records began in 1984. That would be worse than the previous low of 19.8 million tonnes in 2020 and would cost farmers about £390 million in lost revenue.
Nationwide produce chairman Tim O'Malley said consumers could see impacts in both vegetable and food aisles, with grocers likely to replace with smaller produce at the same price, a dynamic known as shrinkflation. He also noted grocers are already importing more products from abroad, including broccoli and iceberg lettuce from Spain in August, which he said is unusual.