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Russia wheat exports forecast to fall to lowest in five years
The Foreign Agricultural Service forecast exports of 40 million tonnes for the 2026-27 marketing year, down from 55 million tonnes in 2023-24.
The US Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Service forecasts Russia will export 40 million tonnes of wheat in the 2026-27 marketing year, the lowest level in five years and far below Russia’s record shipment of 55 million tonnes in 2023-24, according to World Grain.
World Grain reports the FAS lowered its estimate for 2026-27 by 3 million tonnes from its September projection, implying a 17% year-on-year decline versus the 2025-26 export outgo if realized.
The forecast points to obstacles linked to the ongoing war with Ukraine, including rerouting shipments through the Baltic Sea after Ukrainian drone attacks affected the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov, with attacks also intensifying on grain storage and handling infrastructure and grain-carrying vessels.
Despite the logistical challenges, Russia is still expected to remain the world’s top wheat exporter, according to the report cited by World Grain.
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