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Rupiah holds below 18,000 as oil softens and GDP beats
USD/IDR eased 0.1% to 17,918, helped by Indonesia’s Q2 GDP growth of 5.3% year over year and a July CPI print that came in below expectations.
Commerzbank FX analysts said the Indonesian rupiah has held steady despite a slight pullback in USD/IDR, with the pair slipping 0.1% to 17,918 while staying below the key 18,000 level. The analysts pointed to softer global oil prices and improved sentiment after Indonesia’s stronger Q2 GDP data as key supports for the currency.
They cited Indonesia’s Q2 growth rate of 5.3% year over year, compared with a Bloomberg consensus estimate of 5.1%, and said growth was backed by resilient domestic demand, including stronger investment activity while household consumption and government spending remained firm. For H1, they noted the economy expanded 5.5%.
On inflation, Commerzbank referenced July CPI rising 2.9% year over year versus a 3.2% consensus, describing it as the softest reading in three months and closer to Bank Indonesia’s 1.5% to 3.5% target range.
Looking ahead, the analysts said clearer Bank Indonesia leadership and confidence in BI independence could help the rupiah over coming weeks, though potential limits remain. They flagged risks including a possible MSCI downgrade to frontier market status, concern that the fiscal deficit could breach the statutory 3.0% of GDP ceiling, and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty. Separately, local media reported President Prabowo is preparing a shortlist to replace Perry Warjiyo, with acting Governor Destry Damayanti viewed as the frontrunner, and parliament reviewing nominations after returning from recess on 14 August.