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EUR/CZK eyes upside risk after closing above 24.250, ING notes
ING expects EUR/CZK, after a Friday close above 24.250, to face upside pressure toward 24.300 as CEE FX remains sensitive to oil prices and shifting rate differentials.
ING’s Frantisek Taborsky flagged a data-heavy Central and Eastern Europe week, pointing to Czech inflation, Turkey’s inflation report, and key Polish releases including final CPI and second-quarter GDP.
On the outlook for EUR/CZK, Taborsky said the pair is in focus after closing above 24.250 and that there is upside risk toward 24.300, even as CEE currencies stay driven by global headlines, higher oil prices, and narrowing rate differentials.
For Poland, ING expects final CPI to confirm 3.0% and sees 2Q GDP growth accelerating to 3.8% year over year from 3.5% in 1Q, despite further slowdown in private consumption.
ING also linked near-term CEE market direction to global developments, citing a lack of progress in US-Iran talks over the weekend and expecting a mixed open after Friday’s regional rates rally following US jobs data.