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Gold holds near $4,333 as Fed rate-hike odds cool
CME FedWatch shows about a 44% chance of a September rate hike, down from 67% a week earlier, with traders turning to CPI and PPI for the next catalyst.
Gold prices held steady on Monday around $4,333, pausing after last week’s sharp rally, as traders continued to focus on the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate outlook and ongoing Middle East developments. FXStreet reported that the move followed a dovish repricing of Fed rate-hike expectations after weaker-than-expected US Nonfarm Payrolls data.
The precious metal’s gains were also linked to easing inflation concerns, with reporting that Iran and Oman moved closer to finalizing an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which helped push oil prices lower. FXStreet said this weighed on the US dollar and Treasury yields, though the dollar and yields were not falling aggressively because oil remains above pre-war levels.
Market pricing shifted further, with CME FedWatch indicating about a 44% probability of a rate hike at the September meeting, down from 67% a week earlier. FXStreet added that attention now turns to US CPI data on Wednesday and PPI on Thursday, which could influence the next moves in the dollar and gold.
On the geopolitical front, FXStreet said President Donald Trump described Washington as “semi-negotiating” with Tehran while downplaying the military campaign, while Iran denied direct talks and tied reopening the Strait of Hormuz to US concessions including sanctions relief, compensation for war damage, and security guarantees. The report also said gold maintained a constructive bullish bias, holding above its 50-day SMA near $4,150 while trading below the 100-day SMA around $4,389.
Latest closeGold $4,292.00 ▲1.1%