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Commerzbank expects EUR/USD to recover after Iran conflict eases
The bank projects EUR/USD at 1.18 by mid-2027 and 1.19 by end-2027, citing weaker US rate expectations and a Fed independence shift.
Commerzbank chief economist Dr. Jörg Krämer expects the euro to resume gains versus the US dollar after the Iran conflict eases, with EUR/USD set to grind higher over subsequent quarters, according to an FXStreet write-up of the bank’s view.
Krämer links potential EUR strength to what he describes as eroding Federal Reserve independence, falling US rate expectations, and the dollar being significantly overvalued on a purchasing power parity basis.
The update includes Commerzbank’s updated forecast, calling for EUR/USD to reach 1.18 by mid-2027 and 1.19 by end-2027 as the recovery path continues.
As context for the FX market backdrop, the same FXStreet material notes EUR/USD was trading around 1.1540 at the time of writing, with traders still seeking clearer direction as Middle East developments remain in focus.
Latest closeEUR/USD 1.155 ▲0.2%