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Rupiah slips as June retail sales fall pressures USD/IDR

USD/IDR was around 17,850 in Asian trading as June retail sales declined 3.0% year over year and oil-driven rate expectations rose.

Reported · Written up by our desk · EM Currencies

FXStreet reports that USD/IDR edged higher after two sessions of losses, trading near 17,850 during Tuesday’s Asian hours as the Indonesian rupiah remained under pressure following June retail sales data.

The June report showed a 3.0% year-over-year drop in retail sales, improving slightly from May’s 3.9% decline and marking the smallest contraction since April, though it still weighed on the currency.

FXStreet also links the broader move to a firmer US dollar after it pared daily losses, with geopolitical tensions driving a sharp rally in crude oil. Higher oil prices fed into expectations for higher Treasury yields, and investors are watching this week’s inflation data for signals on the Federal Reserve’s next move.

The piece notes that CME FedWatch odds for a 25 basis point Fed hike in September rose to above 51% from 44.4% a day earlier. It also cites TD Securities saying output growth is expected to move sideways this year, while Iran conflict risks could keep the Fed on hold for the entire year.

Latest closeWTI crude $82.30 ▲5.3%

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