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Bitcoin and ether traders position for binary U.S. CPI move

Analysts say the July CPI outcome could shift bitcoin out of its $62,000 to $66,000 range, with Deribit call buying highlighting expectations for upside if volatility picks up.

Reported · Written up by our desk · Market Structure

Bitcoin and ether traders are building positions ahead of the Wednesday U.S. CPI release, which some market participants are treating as a binary catalyst for crypto prices. According to CoinDesk, a hotter-than-expected CPI could strengthen the case for a September Federal Reserve rate hike, push Treasury yields higher, and weigh on risk assets, while a softer print could do the opposite.

CoinDesk reports that bitcoin has been stuck for weeks in a roughly $62,000 to $66,000 trading range, and the CPI print could determine whether it breaks higher or stays capped. Traders seeking upside exposure have been buying call options, including on the leading options exchange Deribit.

One example highlighted by CoinDesk comes from Deribit BTC options flow, where data tracking platform Laevitas said the dominant flow since the prior day was concentrated in a 25SEP26 $70,000 call. Traders who bought that contract at the $70,000 strike paid a total premium of roughly $2.5 million, which CoinDesk notes is the maximum risk if bitcoin is below $70,000 at the end of September.

CoinDesk also cites consensus expectations for the July CPI, with headline CPI forecast to rise 0.1% month over month and 3.4% year over year, and core CPI expected to increase 0.2% month over month and 2.5% year over year, based on surveys referenced by Reuters, Dow Jones, and Bloomberg. It adds that some traders are positioning for a volatility jump rather than making a directional bet.

Latest closeBitcoin $63,573.40 ▼0.5%|Dow Jones 53,791.85 ▼0.3%

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