Forex
Home›Forex›Major Pairs›GBP outlook softens as UK GDP growth may flatten in la…
GBP outlook softens as UK GDP growth may flatten in late 2026
TD Securities expects Q2 UK GDP at 0.4% quarter over quarter, but says the pace may not persist and could translate to flat GDP in the second half of 2026.
TD Securities strategists said upcoming UK June GDP data may reverse May’s strength in professional services. They expect solid retail sales to be offset by that pullback, leaving the Index of Services flat, with modest industrial weakness keeping monthly GDP at 0.0% month over month.
Despite that muted June, the firm projects Q2 GDP at 0.4% quarter over quarter. However, it cautions that the apparent strength could be temporary, implying flat GDP for the second half of 2026.
In currency markets, FXStreet noted the British pound is hovering near 1.3500, awaiting fresh impetus amid investor focus on the next US inflation print. The publication of the US CPI is expected to influence the Federal Reserve’s next interest-rate decision and, in turn, the dollar’s valuation.
FXStreet also tied broader risk appetite to upcoming US data and potential developments related to the Middle East crisis as traders look for direction.