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Citi forecasts Chinese carmakers could take up to 30% of Europe by 2035

The outlook depends on EU tariff policy and “made in EU” rules, with a Brussels push toward local assembly potentially cutting Chinese market share to 5% in the next two years.

Reported · Written up by our desk · Trade & Tariffs

Chinese automakers are projected by Citi to capture between 15% and 30% of the European automotive market by 2035, up from roughly 10% this year, according to a note cited by SCMP Economy. The analysts said the range hinges on how far the EU goes in tightening tariffs and enforcing made-in-EU requirements.

Under current EU rules, Citi’s base scenario sees Chinese carmakers reaching 30% market share by 2035. However, SCMP Economy reported that extending existing tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles to plug-in hybrids would cap the share at 25%.

Citi’s sharpest forecast cut comes from the “made in Europe” requirement in the EU’s proposed Industrial Accelerator Act, SCMP Economy said. In that scenario, Chinese carmakers’ market share would drop to 5% in the next two years and then rise to 15% by 2035, supported by a local assembly and supply chain framework that offsets perceived China cost advantages.

The analysts warned that European carmakers could face 10 years of volume losses and restructuring, SCMP Economy added. They also forecast that other Asian competitors, mainly Japan and South Korea, could see their market share fall from 20% last year to below 16% by 2035.

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