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NZD drops after hawkish RBNZ expectations survey sparks inflation repricing
The survey showed one-year-ahead CPI expectations falling 81 basis points to 2.6%, even as rate path expectations leaned toward a September hike.
New Zealand's Kiwi dollar weakened across the board after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand published its latest Survey of Expectations, which on paper pointed to a September rate hike and firmer growth and wage inflation, Action Forex reports.
Despite that hawkish framing, markets reacted primarily to a sharp drop in near-term inflation expectations. One-year-ahead CPI expectations fell from 3.4% to 2.6%, and two-year-ahead expectations eased from 2.5% to 2.3%, while longer-term readings stayed anchored.
Action Forex said the rate path message still leaned tightening, with end-September OCR expectations at 2.7% implying roughly a 25 basis point hike from 2.5%, and one-year-ahead OCR expectations rising from 3.0% to 3.2%. However, NZD fell and New Zealand's two-year yield dropped by about 6 basis points, reflecting how much of the hawkish path was already priced versus the new inflation survey data.
The outlet added that swaps had already priced about 90% of a September hike before the release, leaving markets little room to move on the policy-rate expectations. It noted the next New Zealand Business PMI could help indicate whether the softer inflation expectations stand alone or align with broader signs of slowing activity.