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El Niño forecast raises odds of historic 2026-27 climate event
The US Climate Prediction Center also expects El Niño to persist through at least April 2027, with strong fall and winter odds.
The US Climate Prediction Center, an arm of the National Weather Service, says El Niño is increasingly likely to become the strongest event on record, with a 69% chance of a historic outcome during the October-December 2026 season that would exceed prior events dating back to 1950, according to Insurance Journal.
The center also sees a greater than 90% chance of a very strong El Niño during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter of 2026-27. It described Thursday’s update as its most definitive statement yet on the forecast.
The forecast comes as El Niño has strengthened since being declared in June. In July, Pacific surface temperatures reached levels that the center said rivaled only 1997 in some areas, with some readings at about 2C above normal and central ocean temperatures about 1.4C above normal.
El Niño is expected to intensify through year-end, driven by unusually warm water deep in the equatorial Pacific. The center said there is a 100% chance El Niño continues through March and a 97% likelihood it lasts through April, while the World Meteorological Organization expects above normal temperatures in parts of western North America and southern Europe and drier than normal conditions in India, Australia, the Caribbean, and Central America through October.