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European natural gas stays tighter than oil as LNG reroutes to Asia
Commerzbank said EU storage levels are about 17 percentage points below the five-year average, leaving gas volumes likely to barely reach 70% by the start of the heating season.
Commerzbank analyst Norman Liebke said European natural gas remains structurally tighter than oil, citing supply shifts tied to Qatar LNG outages and the rerouting of some US LNG cargoes toward Asia, FXStreet reported.
Liebke pointed to historically low storage levels and added that EU bans on Russian LNG and pipeline gas also constrain European supply, a dynamic he said could prolong the divergence between oil and natural gas prices.
He noted that the rerouting is most problematic during the storage replenishment phase and said current storage is about 17 percentage points below the five-year average, with gas levels likely to barely reach 70% by the start of the heating season.
Liebke added that the European Commission is increasingly relying on LNG imports for winter, which he said carries price risk, and referenced El Niño-driven demand in Asia plus the EU decision to ban Russian LNG imports from early next year and pipeline gas from fall 2027.
Latest closeNat gas $2.715 ▼0.4%