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Multifamily investors turn more cautious for late-2026 outlook
A survey of more than 100 Berkadia-linked private real estate executives found 52% say multifamily results in the first half of 2026 ran worse than expected, amid persistent rate uncertainty.
Commercial Observer reports that Berkadia surveyed more than 100 principals and executives across private real estate investment firms, finding 61% described their outlook for the multifamily market in the second half of 2026 as negative. The outlet adds that 52% of respondents said the asset class performed worse in the first half of 2026 than they anticipated. Berkadia’s Josh Bodin, senior vice president of capital markets strategy and trading, linked the shift to an operating environment that has stayed more uncertain than expected, with interest rate volatility persisting and property performance softer than projected. The article cites higher bond yields through 2026, noting the 10-Year Treasury at 4.7% and the 30-Year Treasury at 5.2%, with both levels described as near multi-year highs. It also references CBRE data showing first-quarter multifamily investment sales of $29.5 billion, down 6% year-over-year, followed by a second-quarter rebound to $34.9 billion, still down 2.7% year-over-year. Even with the darker sentiment, Bodin said the survey results have not translated into a loss of confidence in multifamily as an asset class, with investors instead reassessing execution risk. Berkadia’s survey found 82% plan to expand portfolios in the coming months and 83% expect market conditions to improve by late 2027, with nearly 50% underwriting exit cap rate expansion of 25 to 50 basis points and nearly 75% assuming rents will grow no more than 2.5% through late 2027.