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Bitcoin’s $1 million target by 2030 is “mathematically impossible,” says Thielen

Markus Thielen, head of research at 10x Research, estimates Bitcoin would need about $15 trillion in additional capital beyond the $1 trillion seen over the past 15 years to reach $1 million per coin.

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Cointelegraph reports that Markus Thielen, head of research at 10x Research, says the widely cited claim that Bitcoin could hit $1 million per coin by 2030 is not feasible based on the capital required. Thielen argues that historical inflows have fallen far short of what would be necessary to push Bitcoin to that level, describing the projection as “mathematically impossible.” He points to roughly $1 trillion of inflows over the past 15 years as the amount that has been seen to lift Bitcoin toward a roughly $1 trillion market capitalization, and says that is nowhere near what would be required over the next four years. At the time of publication, Cointelegraph says Bitcoin’s market cap was around $1.28 trillion and the price was about $63,868, citing CoinMarketCap. Thielen estimates Bitcoin would need an additional $15 trillion in capital to reach a $1 million per Bitcoin price, which he characterizes as about 25% of the US stock market’s total value flowing into Bitcoin over that four-year period.

Thielen also links the odds of extreme upside to investor psychology, saying that as the price rises, retail sentiment may weaken because many investors want to own a whole unit of Bitcoin rather than a fraction. He warns that Bitcoin’s past rebound behavior may not repeat in the way some bulls expect, and notes that the prior $126,000 all-time high may not return.

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