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Dollar index falls after weaker U.S. retail sales and sentiment
July retail sales dropped 0.6% and consumer sentiment slipped to 51, pushing the two-year Treasury yield briefly below 4.10% and lifting the yen toward a weekly decline of about 0.7%.
The U.S. dollar index broke its streak of holding steady range-bound trading after a set of weaker U.S. data, with July retail sales contracting and consumer sentiment coming in below expectations, according to FXStreet. The report said retail sales fell 0.6% versus a 0.1% consensus gain, and preliminary August consumer sentiment landed at 51 versus a 54.5 consensus.
FXStreet also highlighted additional soft spots in U.S. indicators that helped shift the rate outlook. It noted sales excluding autos declined 0.3% versus a 0.2% consensus, and the control group swung to -0.4% from a 0.4% rise the prior month.
The dollar reaction came alongside changes in interest rate expectations, with FXStreet saying futures now price roughly a 31% chance of a September rate increase compared with near even odds a week earlier, and a move by December marked near 64%. In the front end, FXStreet reported the two-year yield traded briefly beneath 4.10%, its lowest level since June 30.
FXStreet attributed part of the dollar's earlier support to currency intervention dynamics, pointing to yen-buying by Tokyo in record single-session size early in August and a second tranche coordinated with the U.S. Treasury. It said the yen is on track for a weekly decline of about 0.7% despite Friday's gain, trading near 159.00 per dollar after moving down from four-decade lows near 164.00.
Latest closeDollar index 99.64 ▼0.3%