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El Niño may not cut Europe LNG demand this winter
Rystad Energy says Europe would need winter temperatures at least 2.0 degrees Celsius above the historical average for LNG demand to fall to, or below, last winter’s level.
OilPrice reports that even a record-strength El Niño is unlikely to meaningfully ease Europe’s LNG needs this winter, based on Rystad Energy’s analysis of how weather would have to deviate to change import demand.
According to the outlet, Rystad Energy estimates that European winter temperatures would need to be at least 2.0 degrees Celsius above the historical average before LNG demand could fall to or below last winter’s level. It says that current forecasts indicate a strong El Niño forming through the 2026-2027 winter, potentially the most intense since 2015.
The analysis highlighted the stakes for Europe’s LNG balance this season, noting that Middle East hostilities have pushed LNG prices higher and cut deliveries from the Persian Gulf, a key production hub. A milder winter would be a potential offset, but the article frames it as an open question whether El Niño can be strong enough.
OilPrice also cites forecast probabilities for El Niño development, including 100% for an event over the next nine months, easing slightly to 97% by March 2027, and an 81% chance for a relevant temperature index to rise. It concludes that, given forecast uncertainty, the statistically likely outcome remains that Europe will still need materially more LNG than last winter, even with El Niño working in its favor.