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Electric aircraft may shift aviation fuel demand to new routes first
Airlines are expected to consume about 104 billion gallons of fuel this year, while sustainable aviation fuel is still below 1% of total use, leaving most demand tied to liquid hydrocarbons in the near term.
Oil is often viewed as having limited disruption risk from aviation, but Oilprice argues that the threat from electric flight will show up first in how airlines choose routes, not in an immediate replacement of aircraft fleets. The outlet notes that airlines are expected to consume around 104 billion gallons of fuel this year, while sustainable aviation fuel remains below 1% of total use, and virtually all commercial passenger aircraft in service still rely on liquid hydrocarbons.
Oilprice warns that focusing on the installed base of aircraft could miss where technology is advancing next. It points to Archer’s all-electric Midnight aircraft making a piloted flight from Salinas to Monterey on July 30, with the flight taking roughly nine minutes each way, as well as Archer working through certification and its partners taking part in the FAA’s eVTOL Integration Pilot Program.
The article also highlights regulatory progress for electric aviation, saying the first fully electric aircraft was type-certified by EASA in 2020. It cites the Pipistrel Velis Electro as a two-seat trainer that demonstrated an electric propulsion system can pass a commercial certification process.
Oilprice frames the implication for oil markets as a gradual reallocation of demand as batteries begin winning segments of aviation that suit them, rather than an overnight collapse in jet fuel use. It argues that the more relevant question is which parts of aviation become technically and economically viable for electric power next.